Wizards Rui Hachimura has played his best basketball in the last 10 games. Breakout or flash in t ·

26 May 2024, 00:00

Three weeks ago marked one of many times Wizards coach Scott Brooks would remind his starting power forward to be more aggressive.

Rui Hachimura had just gotten 21 minutes of run against the 76ers without pulling down a rebound. He’s no glass glutton, but this was new, the first time since entering the NBA in 2019 he’d gone an entire game without grabbing a board. The goose egg was indicative of a theme the Wizards identified long ago. He looks like a different player when he competes with force, but he doesn’t always do it. So, following the Philadelphia game, the usual advice came from Brooks once again; Hachimura had to be more aggressive.

He’s heard it from his coach, from Bradley Beal and now, from Russell Westbrook regularly. Westbrook, specifically, has spent practices getting in his face and trying to pump him up. Hachimura reminds himself of it and repeats it in sessions with reporters as if he’s reciting high school cheers: “Just be aggressive,” he says.

Well, maybe he’s found something.

For the last three weeks, Hachimura has played his best basketball since entering the NBA — and not just on the glass. He’s averaging 20.2 points and 7.8 rebounds in the 10 games following the Philly matchup and just went for a career-high-tying 30 points Wednesday against the Hornets. He’s turned more assertive rising for shots he likes, essential for someone whose hesitance could break up offensive flow as a rookie.

He’s topped 20 points six times during this stretch. He’s made more than half of his shots six times, too.

The Wizards said when they drafted Hachimura No. 9 overall two years ago that one of the reasons they liked him so much, in spite of him being a three-year collegian, was that he started playing basketball as a teenager. A late start, to them, meant the potential for a steep improvement arc. Aside from some adjustments here and there (most notably the 3-point and free-throw rate climbing a bit), his identity mostly remained steady from his rookie season into 2020-21.

But these past 10 games have looked different.

The Wizards have invested part of their future in Hachimura. Is the hot streak indicative of long-term change? Or is this a mirage? Wizards beat writer Fred Katz sat down with analytics expert Seth Partnow to discuss.

Katz: Seth, one of the reasons I wanted to chat with you, specifically, about this is because of the way analytics-literate observers have viewed Hachimura historically. The numbers haven’t been so friendly to him, almost no matter how you cut it. He doesn’t rely on 3s, is cushiest pulling up from mid-range and hasn’t gotten to the line consistently. The all-encompassing statistics — your PERs and VORPS of the world — aren’t flattering. And analytics-leaning people have shied away from labeling him a featured player.

But just about everything is shiny during these 10 games. He and the rest of the team have used the word “aggressive” so often that Brooks might as well bring a thesaurus to his next media availability, just so he can shake it up. He’s shooting 56 percent on 2-pointers and 41 percent on 3s. It sure feels like he’s finishing stronger around the rim. He’s passing the eye test. He’s been a little more clever finding space off the ball, too.

What were your thoughts on Hachimura coming into this season? And what do you make of these last 10 games?

Partnow: Coming into this season, the impression I had, which was probably shared by most metrics types, was along the lines of what you said: he took a lot of midrange shots, didn’t get to the line much and didn’t finish at the rim particularly well, all of which contributed to a tough profile from which to draw efficient offense. On top of that inefficiency, he didn’t bring much else; below-average rebounding from the 4-spot, minimal playmaking, not a ton of defensive impact, if we’re being kind.

Before we get into this last stretch, it’s worth noting there have been improvements in a few areas. While his shot profile has shifted somewhat, with some of his paint attempts moving beyond the arc, this is an ambiguous indicator, especially given some of the shot location weirdness we’ve seen in Wizards home games.

But he has gotten more efficient in a few ways. He’s finishing around the basket a bit better. He’s drawing fouls a little more often. While he’s still shooting a below-average 33.7 percent from 3, that is already 50 points higher than he managed last year, so… improvement! He’s to the point where his true shooting percentage is just a tick under league average, and he was several points below a year ago.

As for the last 10 games? 10 games is 10 games. As someone who has watched his career intently, what do you think we should be taking from the stretch?

Katz: I’ll tell you this much: for all the talk of, “Rui has to shoot more 3s” or “Rui has to get to the rim more,” this run isn’t happening because of shot selection. He’s taking fewer shots at the hoop and fewer deep balls during the 10-game stretch. He’s not shooting as many free throws. But he’s making a bunch of jumpers. And I do think his demeanor has noticeably changed.

When he first came into the league, the constant struggle he references was learning how to space properly. If he was on the wing, he would park himself there. And if the ball came his way, he’d stand there, think about his next action, then often take a dribble or two before hoisting a 12- or 18-foot jumper. Now, he’s moving a little more decisively. He’s reading when to be in the dunker’s spot.

He credits the progression to none other than Westbrook, who he seems to mention just about every time he meets with reporters.

The two clearly have something good going. And Westbrook is looking for him; 45 percent of Hachimura’s buckets during these 10 games have come off Westbrook assists. That’s essentially four dishes a game Westbrook is handing him. It’s no joke. Some of those are spot-up 3s. But many are around the rim. And that’s where the aggressiveness Westbrook, Hachimura and everyone else has pounded into our heads seems to be showing.

So, I’ll ask you: are you seeing it? Another concentration for him from the time he came into the league was finishing stronger around the hoop. From the games I’m watching, he’s certainly trying to fight through contact more than before. But we’ve got the numbers for a reason. What are they showing?

Partnow: Looking at shots in the paint, Hachimura was slightly below average as a finisher last year, finishing 97th of 164 players with at least 250 attempts, managing only 54 percent in the paint. His overall lane effectiveness was a little bit better than that, as he was about average in terms of foul drawing, earning trips to the line on 16.8 percent of his scoring attempts.

Thus far in 2020-21, he’s been a little bit better across the board:

Hachimura Paint Performance

Season	Paint FG%	Paint Foul Draw%	Paint "Success" %
2019-20	54.0%	16.8%	63.2%
2020-21	58.7%	18.4%	68.6%
NBA Average	55.8%	17.1%	61.5%

“Success” percentage is simply the proportion of paint attempts on which he has either made the shot, been fouled or both.

Oddly enough, over this last 10-game run, his paint numbers have been pretty poor, as you just suggested. He’s drawn fouls on 6.6 percent of attempts while only finishing at a 53.2 percent clip.

In terms of playing more decisively, there are some mixed signals. On one hand, he has been assisted on his 2-point shots at a rate nearly 10 points higher than last season. On the other hand, while just under half of his twos came with tw0-seconds-or-less touch time last season (49.6 percent), this rate has declined slightly to 44.2 percent this season. He has taken only one fewer 2 with more than six seconds of possession before the shot this year (28) than he attempted over all of last season (29).

On the whole, there are some signs of progress, but it’s odd that his best stretch of results hasn’t necessarily coincided with some of the improvements we would like to see.

Katz: There’s context here. Hachimura is taking a lower ratio of shots around the rim, but that’s also because he’s more of a featured player than he was previously. Beal has a hip contusion and was out when he tied his career-high Wednesday night. Davis Bertans is injured. There are shots to be had. Hachimura is releasing them.

When usage increases, quality of shots can decrease.

I want to readdress this idea of scoring in the paint, too, because independent of how often he’s getting there, his finishing has been more competent once he actually arrives. Brooks used to hound him about powering through someone’s chest instead of trying to dink in a little, hooked layup. His finishes are fiercer, now. There’s the occasional dunk, or at least the more, dare we call it … aggressive finish than before.

I hope I know what I’m seeing, considering I sit around thinking about the Wizards a truly unhealthy amount. But give me the numbers, Seth. Tell me I’m not a crazy person.

Partnow: He is dunking more frequently. Hachimura has thrown it down 41 times already this year compared to 45 all of last year, and the increase looks even a little larger still if we adjust for his changing shot profile. 20.8 percent of his paint attempts have been dunks this year compared to only 17.5 percent a year ago. That’s a sizable increase!

Keeping with the theme of small increases, Hachimura got blocked on 15.5 percent of his paint attempts as a rookie. That number is down to 14.5 percent this year, which is still well above the league average of just over 10 percent.

To give some context for Hachimura having roughly equal rates of dunks and getting blocked, for much of his career, Aaron Gordon has been up around a 2:1 ratio, though Zion Williamson has been right around 1:1 himself in his short career. Of course, Williamson’s attempt rate, ability to finish and propensity to draw fouls are all an order of magnitude higher than Hachimura’s, but that’s not really a fair comparison to begin with.

Katz: We have to talk about everyone’s favorite Hachimura-related topic before we wrap.

If I asked people from around the league what they believe Hachimura’s most important long-term development is, the majority of answers would have something to do with 3-pointers. People obsess over his deep ball. If he can add one consistently, it changes his game.

There are other places for him to improve. If he tightens his handle, it could do wonders for his offense. He needs to advance as a passer and decision-maker. There are loads of conversations we can have about defense, too. He’s been a little feistier guarding dribblers this year. His off-ball work is messy.

But who cares about the nuances of defense right now? We’re talking 3s.

He’s taking them more this year. The percentage, as you noted, is better. He’s worked on unflattening his jump-shot arc, and his release appears more fluid. It’s imperfect now, but it looks better.

His comfort zone remains in the mid-range. What’s the ideal number of 3s he should be taking to maximize his success? How encouraged are you by the uptick this season?

Partnow: At his present level of usage, the ideal number of mid-range shots for Hachimura is zero. If I’ve said it once, I’ve said it a hundred times, but the mid-range jumper is a “star” shot in today’s NBA, and Hachimura hasn’t really earned that status, has he? Even if he’s being groomed as a more primary offensive player, he needs to increase his volume of the easier, higher percentage shots — that boring trio of rim attempts, free throws and catch-and-shoot 3s — before piling on increasing amounts of more difficult pull-up Js to his arsenal.

As for how many he should shoot? As of right now, his 3.9 3s per 100 possessions is 193rd of 244 qualifying players, according to Basketball-Reference. A decent target is to get that up to around six per 100, about Miles Bridges and Paul Millsap territory, and go from there.

Now, the bad news: I’m not really buying the improvement as significant. Last year, Hachimura shot 28.8 percent on uncontested 3s, which is really bad. So for this year, he is up to 30.9 percent. League average tends to be in the 38s, while this year it has been 39.2. The improvement in Hachimura’s overall percentage is more the result of his 10-of-23 mark on contested 3s which doesn’t seem at all sustainable.

Katz: Ultimately, it’s going to come back to that assertiveness. A couple of games during this stretch against the Bucks are ideal examples of that.

Hachimura went through noticeable struggles last year in the bubble, where the Wizards were missing their two leading scorers, Beal and Bertans. The original thought was that the team could hand the offense over to the at-the-time 22-year-old. He could be a leading man for eight games. It didn’t turn out that way. Troy Brown’s role increased, as did Thomas Bryant’s. Those two became the talk of, “Oh, these young Wizards look much better!” as Hachimura waded through the Orlando experience without much change. His 3-ball didn’t look different. His willingness to stay behind the arc was the same. He didn’t command the rock. He wasn’t attacking the paint with much more vigor than he did during the first portion of his rookie season.

I remember the bubble game against the Bucks well. Milwaukee played its usual strategy, conceding lots of 3s on the wings, and Hachimura took them but didn’t look comfortable. “Catch-and-shoot” was somewhat of a misnomer for him last year. He was more of a catch-and-scan-and-shoot guy. He went for 20 points but shot just 6-of-18 against a top-notch defense. I do think he’s more enthusiastic about those looks now.

After all, this 10-game streak started with a series against the Bucks. Hachimura went for 29 points in game 1 and 22 in game 2. He shot better than 50 percent both times. He went a combined 7-of-14 from range during the two matches and rose from deep without as much doubt. For so long, Hachimura protested that 3s weren’t actually part of his style. Helping him overcome the logic has been part of Brooks’ job description. Making 3s is about fundamentals, but it’s also about habits. And at the very least, I’d say Hachimura is starting to break some of the habits. It’s a start.

(Photo: Ned Dishman/NBAE via Getty Images)

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Wizards Rui Hachimura has played his best basketball in the last 10 games. Breakout or flash in t

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