We flipped an exact replica of this years Super Bowl coin 1751 times. Here are the results

The coin flip bet is goofy, dumb fun. As editor of the sports betting section, if I endorse it with too much enthusiasm, I’ll be called out by serious bettors for pushing a wager that sportsbooks want you to make, because the odds are terrible and they’ll make money from the poor, uneducated bettors who mindlessly click on banners and links. But if I look down my nose at the coin flip bet to appease the faux cognoscenti, I’ve become the pompous, lifeless betting elitist who sucks the fun out of what some people view as a form of relatively cheap entertainment on Super Bowl Sunday.

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So instead of falling into that trap, we decided to go another route. Entirely.

The Highland Mint has been in business since 1986. The company produces the official coin that is flipped at the start of the Super Bowl. Each year, they mint 10,000 of the exact same Super Bowl coin — the first 100 are sent to the NFL; the remaining 9,900 are sold to collectors and fans. Executive Vice President Vince Bohbot says the coin weighs the same every year (approximately 1 oz), and the design is guided by the NFL. This year’s coin is 39mm in diameter. And they do not, Bohbot says, test flip the coin before shipping.

We obtained three of the official Super Bowl coins (they retail for $99.99), sent them to Sports Betting Sr. Editor Andrew DeWitt, Sports Betting editor Dan Santaromita, and Sports Betting writer Zach Pekale. They were given but one instruction: flip this coin 500 or more times and record the results. They could flip it inside, outside, wherever. Bohbot says that while the Highand Mint produces millions more coins per year, outside of the Super Bowl coin, they have not developed any flipping guidance. “Usually it’s a flip of the thumb with a gradual upward arm movement,” he explains.

Will this prove anything in a bet that is essentially 50/50? No. But was it fun? No. But is this now the most intense “coin flip bet” story you’ve ever read? You tell us.

Zach Pekale (500 flips) descends into coin flip madness

• Feb. 4 at 6 p.m. –  An unknown parcel has arrived at my front door. Of course, it is the coin, concealed inside a booklet and protected by a casing and a thick wood-like structure (more on this in a moment).
• Feb. 4 at 9 p.m. –  Time to retrieve the coin, or so I initially thought. This booklet is basically a fortress and frustration is building. Many failed attempts later, the toolbox has been broken out and extraction was finally successful through the trusty combination of a box cutter, pliers and applied pressure.
• Feb. 7 at 9 a.m. – We go outside to begin flipping. It’s cloudy, in the low 30s and very icy in New York today.
• Feb. 7 at 9:02 a.m. — In the name of science, I decide to audible and flip this coin inside. After all, the indoor temperature and wind conditions are much more in line with the expected weather at SoFi Stadium on Sunday.
• Feb. 7 at 9:30 a.m. – And we’re off. Through 25 flips, heads has a slight 13-12 edge. After the first 100 tosses, heads was the result 54 times.
• Feb. 7 at 10 a.m. – A mild sweat has been broken some 175 flips in. Surprised would be an understatement. But tails is the victor of the next 150 throws, popping up 83 times. Halfway there.
• Feb. 7 at 10:30 a.m. – It’s not how you start, but how you finish. Unfortunately, pace is slowing down due to unforeseen injury. Fingers are tightening up and a strange tingling pain is coming from my flipping elbow. We power through for the people as heads makes a bit of a comeback with 53 of the next 100 tosses.
• Feb. 7 at 11:15 a.m. – An exactly even 50-50 split over another 100 throws was unexpected. So was the increasing discomfort. This experiment is going to be the root cause of future dexterity issues. We were so close to the end of another set and boom, we’ve got an uphill climb to the finish line with 50 tosses to go.
• Feb. 7 at 11:30 a.m. – Tails takes the majority of the final set and ends up as the more frequent result. The coin is going back in its case after staring at it for two hours. Someone get me an ice pack for my elbow, it feels like I just threw eight innings.

Here are the final results:

Yes, tails won. But is this data sample enough for you to bet the backside of the coin this year? Remember, a different person flips at every Super Bowl and the game is played in a different climate each year. We could go on and on about the numerous variables that should deter you from betting on this prop. But we won’t.

Andrew DeWitt (651 flips) wonders where it all went awry in his life

Since we started the sports betting vertical a year ago, we’ve found that there’s more value in finding the unusual or something that the bookmakers didn’t anticipate. From the length of the longest home run in the Home Run Derby to the New England Patriots playing an entire NFL football game without throwing more than five passes, there are good opportunities if you’re patient and look for them consistently. It’s something James Holzhauer continues to preach in his columns. Winning at sports betting isn’t about picking winners, but finding value in the odds and taking advantage of what you find in unusual situations.

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So, in theory, finding an edge in a coin made to sell to fans as collectables isn’t that crazy of an idea. What if it landed heads 65 percent of the time for some reason?

Unfortunately, there’s nothing here. I flipped this sucker 650 times and it finished 330 heads and 320 tails. The coin does have a nice sound to it when you flip it up and it does bounce a lot off of the carpet in my office taking some big bounces and skidding. But that’s all I have for insight. Back to scouring the props to find another bet that’s further off in its pricing.

Do. Not. Bet. On. The. Coin. Toss.

Dan Santaromita’s brain wanders into lalaland while flipping a coin 600 times

My first impression of the coin after getting it out of the package: Wow this sucker is heavy. It’s only one ounce, but for a coin it’s hefty. Like DeWitt said, you can hear it whirring in the air on a good flip. That’s cool.

After figuring out which side was heads and which was tails (seriously, there’s no “head” to make it obvious), it was off to the races. My next concern was in realizing how loud of a noise this hefty coin made when it landed on my carpet. I lived in constant fear of my downstairs neighbor throwing a fit. Then I remembered he blasts heavy-bass music at all hours, so screw it.

As I flipped this coin 600 times over the course of four days, my mind began to wander. At one point I critiqued Roger Goodell’s signature. The G that starts his last name is on a weird angle, but every other letter is perfectly upright.

I was pretty sure I had officially lost it when I stared at the tails side and saw that the four logos spell out NOBA. N for the NFC logo, the Rams logo is sort of in the shape of an O, B for the Bengals logo and A for the AFC logo. NOBA. What would NOBA mean as a word? Maybe I’m playing too much Wordle and my brain is just trying to force words into existence.

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Finally, I recalled something from high school statistics class. Our teacher split us into groups and had us flip a coin 100 times and keep track. He also asked us to make up 100 heads/tails results. He would look at the two results side by side and always knew which one was real and which one was made up.

The point of the lesson was to show that even in something that has a 50-50 probability, there will be long streaks of the same outcome. When people try to make up coin flip results, they are afraid to have long streaks because they don’t think it’s likely. To that point, I had a run of 23 straight tails at one point immediately followed by six straight heads.

Oh, and I’m with DeWitt. Please don’t bet on the coin flip. Bet on literally anything else.

Total tally

(Top photo: Getty; Michael Zagaris, Scott Winters / Icon Sportswire)

ncG1vNJzZmismJqutbTLnquim16YvK57kmppaW9lZXxzfJFrZmlqX2aAcMPEZp2loaClsqV5wKdknrCRmMFuvsSpo6KbkWK8p3nToaCsZamarrO%2FjKysqZ2iYq%2Bww8tmmqihnmJ%2BeIGQZquipZWoeqmx0Z5kmqqVYsGpsYyrnKytnKnAcA%3D%3D

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